WHAT'S NEXT ?

Now GE-13 is over and what’s next? It’s time to close rank and to move forward.

How do our economy  fare  this year especially after  the general election? In the first quarter of this year we have seen a decline on GDP growth from  6.4% in the previous quarter to 4.1%.  The  reasons  are weakness in the external demands however this  was supported by a robust domestic demand. Slowdown in  manufacturing  sectors  and imports of capital goods due to strong investment activity had brought down the overall growth.

 The inflation rate remains at 1.6%,  the same as last quarter but has increased recently to 1.7% in April.  It is anticipated that the inflation rate will increase between 2% to 2.5% this year. One can see that the  food  and non- alcoholic beverages items have currently increased. The food and non-alcoholic beverages has risen to 3.8% year on year in April and has been at 3.3% for the last two months. The OPR or interest rate has not moved from 3% since the last two years. The unemployment  rate  remains  at  3.3% . However when 3.3% translated into numbers it may come up to more  than  400,000  whereby almost a quarter of these are graduates!

The bold move by the government is in the  implementation of the  Economic Transformation Programme (ETP)   which will be on-going until the year 2020. This will boost the  domestic  demand  and will  be the main anchor for the GDP growth.  It should be noted that the  construction  for the  MRT or manufacturing plants required importation of high technology capital goods. This  may have significant impact on the trade balance. The socio - economic benefits including the spin off  such as  the PRIMA housing in the vicinity of the MRT augur well for the property market.

The ETP projects are capital intensive, long gestation period and are funded by the government. Previous history had shown that both STAR and PUTRA LRT are economically no go. The government need to bail both after a few years of operation. The MRT project line 1 is on-going   but the Line2 has yet to be awarded and pending cabinet approval. Analysts are concerned on the viability of the project since the cost is astronomical.  Although the project EIRR submitted by the consultant is quite impressive but one should know how economists work to make a project viable! The current country’s debt  is in the region of Rm 479 billion or 53.9% of GDP. With the interest rate of Rm 16 billion per year and the need to fulfil election commitments will the 55% limit be breached?

The  Eurozone  and US  economics  have not improved much and with such uncertainty Malaysia GDP growth of 5.6% was achieved for the year 2012 compared to Thailand 6.4 %, Indonesia 6.2 %, Philippines 6.6 %, Singapore 1.3 %, S. Korea 2.0 %  . This year we do not expect to see much changes and analysts targeted the GDP  growth  is in the range of 5% -5.5%.

What is seen above has been quite a rosy picture.  However  there  are few areas of concerned which one should take note.  Are  these   growth  sustainable?  Will  there  be cost overruns  on the mega projects?  The   household debt has been increasing  from  76.6% in 2011 to 80.5% of GDP  in  2012 and  will there be a  credit bubble?  What about  possibilities  of being  swallowed up by economic  bubble  arising from ‘hot money’ from developed nations?  The   stock  market   has  been  bullish  and has reached   all  time  high recently.  What goes up may come down and that is the law of nature!

The GST or goods and  service  tax  which will take the  place of SST has been mooted a few years ago. Whether it is going to be implemented this year or  next  year  only the government can tell. The public must be well educated and  explained  the  impact caused before its  implementation.  The  GST  is not new as most of the countries have implemented including our  Asean  neighbours. We are one of the last few countries to implement. The government expected to gain an additional of  Rm 27 billion once implemented.

It was recently announced that Malaysia will follow Singapore model on its implementation. Singapore GST rate is currently at 7% and if Malaysia is going to follow it will be quite a burden for Malaysians. The GST is a broad- based value added tax levied on supplies of goods and services and import goods.  Inflation  is  inevitable if it were to start at 7% hence the low income earners will be affected. However, this    depends  on the type of goods to be exempted. Singapore started the GST with 3%  in 1994 and increased to 4% in 2003 and 5% in 2004. Currently the rate is 7% since 2007. Australia implemented the GST at a rate of 10% in  2000  and  with inflationary effect.  The  published rate  as shown in the government website is  4%.  A  change to 7% will  not be well  received by many.

The sweetener is that on implementation of GST the government will reduce the corporate tax and individual tax. However the number of  taxpayers  involved are relatively small , in the region of 12%. This will  benefit  only salaried workers earning  more than  Rm 3000.

 Amidst all  the  focus is  on  the   government  steering  for a  high income nation, one should not forget the rural folks. There is a need to close disparity between the urban and rural areas. If this is not done there will be discontent among the low income earners and happenings like in Stockholm recently, Paris and London a few years back were good lessons to learn. The announcement made recently  by the Selangor MB to emphasise more on  the  rurals    is laudable.

Finally education will be a major topic from now on. Many has voiced their concerned on declining standards of our universities and the need to bring back English as the medium of language.  Datuk  Seri Idris  Jala, the Pemandu  CEO did mention that structural reforms include education. Our country has decline in the world competitiveness ranking from 10 in 2010 to 15 this year.   To  overcome  global  weakness Malaysia need to be competitive  and need to have a  strong workforce in term of skill and high calibre  professionals . We  cannot  become  world beaters if our workforce lack communication skills and proficiency in English. We will be lagging behind our nearest  neighbour  who has a very highly intelligent cabinet members. Now if we want to move forward, education reforms should be a priority.

Ir. GHAZALI IBRAHIM

RACISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

The weather is hot today and in the  last  few  weeks  and so is the media. Nobody seems to control their big mouth or are local dailies  without ethics?  I quote an example of racism in the UK. For instance, John Terry, a Chelsea and  England football captain was brought to court and a lip reader  was called to certify that he did utter the racist words at his opponent. He was fined £220,000 (Rm 1.1mil) and banned for four games. Luis Suarez a  Liverpool  striker was fined  £40,000 for racist remarks. Here in our country, leaders   or prominent persons simply  have a field day.

I give you  examples  on my experience on unity in this country. My daughter did her foundation at a private college a few years ago. There were two Malay students in the class and her close friends were local Indian students in a Chinese dominated class. When she did her undergraduate,  again her  close friends were Chinese but from Indonesia. My uncle  got married  to a Chinese lady during the height of May ’69 while he was studying in the UK. He came back and was doing well in a mining company  under  a British management. Things did not go well when the company had  to  undergo   Malaysianisation  exercise. He could not bear the biasness and racist attitude of the society taking the toll on him and his family. He left the country  to  Australia for good. Last month my nephew wed a Chinese lady in a two culture ceremonies in a premise  of a mosque organised by PERKIM. I wonder how she will cope with life in a so called multi- cultural society, God’s willing.

There are many examples and happenings which you and I came across but where do we go wrong? Is it due to circumstances or shortcoming of our  education system or racist attitude of some of the Malaysian? The topic of unity is  not  new and our country will never see a national unity if Malaysian of different  origins, races and religions  do not have mutual trust and sincerity.  It won’t be an  easy task  as human are special species  and possess  what we call ‘ego’.

I put a question to a few young people on how to achieve unity. Their answers are shallow and lack maturity. Areas like intermarriages, sports and open house are common answers. Those  are secondary elements which have been going on until today and with little impact .

 There are  three  key  areas where  the government can implement in order to achieve national unity .  Once  enforced,  there is  no choice but everybody has to toe the line. One  is  education, next is abolition of race-based politics and lastly tackling racism effectively. Malaysian need to be sincere in accepting the above  if  they want to achieve the so called national unity.

The subject of education has been hot topics year in and year out. Each major race is clamouring for more vernacular schools  and  colleges to please their voters. To touch this subject is  like  ‘walking on thin ice’. Now there are proposition of doing away with vernacular schools. A one school system will nurture the kids in forging racial harmony in their early stage of primary  schools  and continuing to foster  good relationship in high schools. Hopefully  the bond of friendship and mutual trust will be cemented  at the tertiary level. This had been happening in the early fifties and sixties where English was the major language used in schools. Currently the medium of instruction will be a big issue, shall  it be  in  Bahasa  Malaysia or English? There could be hue and cry but if the government is serious in national unity and willing to review the constitution ( not  to please voters), half of the battle is won. Here is  where Malaysians need to show their  sincerity and willingness to sacrifice. There are many pro and cons which you and I know but nobody dare to sacrifice.  For  a  start  why not  bring  back the  English medium school ?

As it is now, most of the Chinese kids go to the Chinese schools, the  Indian  go to the Tamil schools  and the Malays go to the national schools. The Chinese then enter the private universities and secure good foreign degrees through twinning or collaboration   with  well   known   foreign universities. The Malays  enter  the government  universities whose  ranking in the world are not even in the top 200 in the world. Now do you expect this young generation to appreciate national unity as their path is parallel since they were kids?

Our country is multi-racial and politics are race- based.  Malaysian politics were  shaped  on ethnics right from the pre- independence days and has hindered  national unity.  If  the  government  take  a stand   to do away with race-based politics, I think we will see some light on national unity. However  are  Malaysians sincere enough and willing to accommodate their counterpart from  various races in a single party? This issue is not as tough as  above and not impossible if we still think ‘Malaysia Boleh’.

Lastly,  there is a need to take  tough measures on racism effectively. The government need to uphold the laws and to take stern action whoever stir up racial sentiments. The John Terry case above is an example of how  serious  is  the  UK  government  in tackling issues on racism. Some were  hauled  up  just  on  a  racist statement made in twitter. I  just  wonder  how the  newly wed nephew of mine felt when reading newspaper headlines in the last few weeks. I hope he would  not resort to another country to start a new life.  

Again as I said the media is currently hot on sensitive issues and  if  not  wisely  handled ,there is little hope for national  unity. One may continue shouting the slogan ‘ Satu  Malaysia’ or Hidup!!! time and again as  it  will  be a waste of time and we feel  sorry for the next generation in this beloved nation.

Ir.GHAZALI  IBRAHIM

The above article is  the  writer’s opinion, without malicious intent or prejudice.

A TRANSFORMATION - ' THE FISH ROTS FROM THE HEAD '

 

It  is  an old Chinese proverb  ‘the fish rots from the head’. You can get the best- selling  book with the same  title at the amazon . The subject on  transformation  has made headlines these days. Sometime ago  a reality show Akademi Fantasia  which  was a hit among the Malay viewers push forward  the slogan ‘Tranformasi’. Everyday  the  slogan was played in and out of Astro Channels  to catch  viewers  attention. At the end the show I doubt everybody really knew  what was the ‘transformasi’ all about or what had been transformed  or  was it just a catchy slogan.

Now the Malaysian government has embarked on the Economic Transformation Programme. The bold initiative is good for the country as the target is to achieve a high income nation by the year 2020.The billion dollar development will definitely increase the GDP growth in spite of weakness in the external  demand. The development will create jobs and increase the income of the urban people whereas the rural people like the fishermen, rubber-tappers and the farmers will not be affected. Hence this will increase the disparity of income between urban and rural people. One can see that the city  people  are enjoying  the city life  but a few kilometres outside these towns the condition of the household are deplorable such as in Kuching and Kota  Kinabalu. The one- off BR1M receivers (income below Rm 3000) are made up of about 60% of the total population and those income below Rm1500 is about  40%. Now how do the government want to reduce this disparity? If this is not done I don’t think the future generation will be peaceful.

A complete overhaul in transformation programme encompassing  unity, education, judiciary, government service and the cabinet itself is what we really need. I remember  one day Marina Mahathir did tweet that  the new leaders should have talent. Do we have one? The Talent Corporation is headed by a Cambridge graduate and so some of the GLC’s  CEO’s  are from prestigious universities but  is this enough?  Now  what about the cabinet members ,do we have talented people? They are the one who make the policies and  to chart the direction for the country. So if we have a rotten head where will our country stands?  In the past we did not see the so called talented one in the cabinet. We have one or two with a doctorate but unfortunately their brain usage was restricted. Good education is pre- requisite like Mr. Obama from  Havard and David Cameroon from Oxford. Some of our leaders tend to overdo it. In the last election a few candidates with dubious qualification were exposed. Let me put this way if one is smart he is smart and should have a Havard, Cambridge or Oxford qualification and not masters from unknown universities.

Now look at these people like Khairy  Jamaluddin, Nurul Izzah, Rafizi Ramli, Nik Nazmi and Dr.Dzulkefly. They are the one  frequently interviewed by CNBC, Al Jazeera and BBC for one reason is that they are smart individual and communicate well. Khairy was an Oxford graduate,Dr Dzulkefly was from Imperial  College, Nurul Izzah had her Master from Princeton University, Nik Nazmi was from Kings College and Rafizi Ramli was an outstanding MCKK scholar who have  an engineering and professional accounting education from  the UK. Khairy was not a minister before ( he was appointed as Youth and Sport Minister recently) but he gave his views on behalf of the ruling party. Now where are the rest? One former minister  spoke to Al Jazeera in broken English and the other cannot expressed himself and uttered the word  ‘shit’ a  few times. Are these  the type of  people capable of steering  our country to be at par with Singapore or Korea? In the early seventies we are at par with them.

In order for our country to be at par with Singapore or Korea the whole system in the country need to be transformed. Like I say the fish rots from the head , so the head must be talented and effective people. The policymakers must be the one who can think effectively and not just signing papers  and to read a written text or hiring foreign consultants to do the thinking.

Let  us look at our nearest neighbour ,Singapore  and how they do  it. Indeed if the head is good you get a good body. The Prime Minister was a Cambridge graduate in Mathematics and Computer Science and a Master  from Havard. The two deputies were either from Imperial College or Cambridge and Master from Havard. The rest of cabinet members are mostly from Cambridge with Master from Havard and some are from prestigious universities with First Class Honours. They have three Indian ministers and one Malay minister. The Malay minister has a doctorate in structural engineering from Stanford University, one of the prestigious university in the US. The Chief of Defence, Naval,  Air Force and Police Force are also graduates  from  Oxford and Havard. You know what a graduate from  Cambridge, Oxford and Havard means, a highly intelligent and persons with high IQ. Most of the ministers are relatively young and had many years working experience either from the private or government sectors. They are the people of high integrity and not apple polishers or ‘looking after rice bowl’ types. They are paid with high salaries and even if they quit the cabinet they are marketable because they are talented. Now you can know why we lost our fight to claim Pulau Batu Putih from them?

One may see quite a number of graduates from our own  University of Malaya in the cabinet. However where do it stand in the world, not even in the top 150 and not even in the top 30 in Asia. The Singapore Cabinet did not pick any from their own University of Singapore although it ranked number 25 in the world and no 2 in Asia!

Looking at the current Malaysian  Cabinet ,  I don’t think ours is as  near the Singapore Cabinet. One is for sure that the good MP’s  are from the urban and they are mostly from the opposition parties. So the PM is left with a few choice. Marina Mahathir tweeted that the latest cabinet is not creative, nor talent- based and totally  unimpressive! So the present government must try hard to get the private sectors assistance to steer the Economic Transformation  Programme to success.

 All I can see there will be a dynamic  transformation in the Youth and Sport  sector but I can see little changes in the future in other ministries. I am not being sceptical or  looking lowly on our current leaders but this has been going on for years and we have to live with a mundane government for the next five years. To catch up with Singapore or South Korea is a long way indeed, sad to say  the selected head have to prove they are not rot. Malaysian should be open minded and not  thinking of their race, colour or creed but  to work with our leaders and transform to  a better Malaysia.

Ir. GHAZALI IBRAHIM

The article is the writer’s view and with no malicious intent whatsoever.

BIDUK BERLALU KIAMBANG BERTAUT

The dust has settles but kiambang has not  yet  bertaut! The 2013 election results had shown  the geographical and socio economic  (as tweeted by Karim  Raslan) are dominant factors and not the racial tsunami as the ruling party  leader claimed. It’s between the urban and rural but to translate the vote from urban as Chinese votes are quite misleading. The opposition is crying over fraud but this will not affect the election results as the magnitude of the fraud is difficult to prove. The common knowledge is that fraud might exist in the major cities and the hot-spots. Anyhow   these areas are mostly won by the opposition and any revisit  will not assist them at all. However one must be  wary  in the next election because  both parties will be hunting for voters from China or India if the situation is not curbed!

The fact is that the  opposition  seats  had improved and  obtained the popular votes for the first time and more can be expected in the next election if the ruling party rest on its laurels. One can easily predict before  the  2013 election as which party is going to win. Since Sabah and Sarawak  has a strong coalitions with the ruling party ,no way  the opposition can win. The Opposition knew  this as they have failed to get a strong coalition. Although they have made inroads in the fixed deposit area like Johor  but that was not sufficient.

Let’s  not put the blame on the races but study on why these things happened. If we look back in 2004 Barisan  Nasional  won with a thumping majority. This happened because the Chinese rally behind  the supposed to be a clean government under a  Mr. Clean. However  those in the ruling party had failed to perform  and  supposed to be a clean government is not that clean. The MCA which represent the Chinese were a disgrace then as the ‘fat  towkays’ had not fulfilled their promises but embroiled in the billion dollars PKFZ fiasco. The urban Malays also were not happy as cronyism and corruption  were quite rampant coupled with high cost of livings. The opposition saw the sign of unhappiness  and did their homework well and had resulted  in ‘tsunami’ in the 2008 election. The wake  up call had not been answered and this pattern continued  in 2013. This pattern will stay and if the opposition manage to break the Sabah and Sarawak fixed deposits  one will see a new government in the next election!

One must study the needs of both the urban and rural folks very well. The ruling party has failed to satisfy the urban needs meanwhile the opposition had not done much to the rural people. What the urban people needs are basically good governance, no corruption and cronyism, fair chance in education and businesses, good  infrastructure  and  less  crime.

Finally, stop being racist if we want Malaysia to become prosper and equal status like Singapore or Korea. One must understand that our forefathers had agreed to let the Chinese and Indian be granted citizenships in order to gain Merdeka. We have to accept and  live with them.  Constant  bickering  does not augur well as the Malays and Chinese have intermarriages and business partners as well. The Chinese businessman  do employ a lot of Malays and uncalled statement by the top leaders will sour up good relationship. The dominance of the Chinese in the city has to do with historical factors. The earlier  leadership  had  the chance to flood the Malays to major towns but they choose to send them  to the jungle to open new lands  and they remain a poor community until today. Sometimes truth  hurts but to blame when the going is not right really not a right thing to do. We look forward to a better Malaysia.

Ir.GHAZALI  IBRAHIM

The article is the writer’s opinion and has no malicious intent whatsoever.